Brexit: Issues & Price Changes

31st December 2020

Meat

The Issues
The UK is a net importer of beef and pork, though we are technically 75% and 60% self-sufficient respectively. For lamb we could be 100% per cent self-sufficient, but import and export the same amount due to seasonal availability, the majority coming from New Zealand.

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Beef: Prices are expected to rise by at least 4%, and potentially as much as 25%. This depends very much on Irish beef imports, and the status of the Irish border with the UK.
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Lamb: Because the UK imports lamb tariff-free from New Zealand, but exports mostly to the EU, lamb process are likely to drop. This could be as much as 5%, depending on transportation issues.
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Pork: Prices are expected to rise by at least 3%, with seasonal issue complicating maters further.
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Poultry: 80% of the poultry produced in the UK is chicken, although the demand for breast meat means we are net importers, the majority arriving from the EU. Similarly we eat more eggs than we produce. Prices could rise significantly and transportation issue on exports could force some producers out of business, further threatening supply.

Fish

The UK exports the vast majority of the fish landed on its shores to the EU, whilst the most popular fish consumed here, Cod and Tuna are largely imported. Despite fish featuring heavily in the discussions, it is unclear what effect this will have on prices. Transport disruptions are particularly important where fresh fish is concerned, and prices of native fish and seafood could fall significantly.

Dairy

90% UK exports are to the EU, and our unique relationship with Ireland will be an issue. We export large volumes of raw for processing in the Irish Republic, some of which is then shipped back. As with Beef, this could drive prices up significantly.

Fruit & Vegetables

The Issues
The UK is not self-sufficient in this area, and some popular produce is imported.

Soft & Stone Fruit: Whilst we import a large volume of strawberries from the Netherlands and Belgium, Egypt is also a significant source. Similarly much other soft fruit such as plums, peach and nectarines comes from South Africa with Mexican, Peruvian and Chilean blueberries keeping prices stable. It is likely that prices will rise on any European grown fruit.

Citrus: Much of our citrus comes from Spain and Italy, though there are sources outside the EU.

Apples: Though we produce and cold store a lot of apples, we also import from France and the Southern Hemisphere.

Potatoes: The UK produces more potatoes than it consumes, with cold stored crop offering supply throughout the year . Prices have been low for the last few months, it is likely that prices will rise in the first few months of the year as demand matches supply.

Brassicas: Though much is produced in the UK we solely rely on the Spanish and French supply for part of the year. Typically, brassicas increase in price over the Winter, further tariffs may change this again.

Salads: Prices have nearly doubled for the lettuces like the frizzy endive, lollo rosso and oakleaf, compared with the recently finished English season produce. We will also be moving over to Italian mixed leaf and rocket in December, which could present significant issues.

For more information, read our
Brexit: Everything you need to know
article here.

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Telephone: 0330 094 8788

Email: customer.service@idcltd.com

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